For their part imports have floundered by 42 to 16

Unlike the copper, the rise of the zinc is not due to the simple distorting effect of an influx of new capital made by the Fund of arbitration and non-commercial investors ("Les Echos" of yesterday). Zinc, which reached Friday by meeting a new highest history to $ 2.485 per tonne for three months of his contract listed on the London Metal Exchange (LME), has more than doubled its price since the lowest of 2005 (1.170 dollars) on 4 January.

His rise started late July of last year, later than that of other non-ferrous, but she has known since that a genuine technical rollover the first fortnight of February. Subsequently, this base metal has regained vigour in oscillating, early March, between 2,200 and 2,400 dollars prior to the assault to his previous record.

This increase does not contradict the actual terms of market. Evidenced by the continuous erosion of official reserves of zinc in the London market. The LME stocks have melted around 61 since mid-April 2005. As a result, the market is now in a situation of "backwardation" (course cash is greater during the term, which reflects an insufficient offer).

This gives, according to Ingrid Sternby, analyst at Barclays Capital, an excellent opportunity to test the true depth of the potential offer. Because of this inversion in the traditional relationship between cash and futures prices, explains, the vendors are encouraged to bring to the market all the metal available to them.

Low reserve

For the London-based specialist, the entire global reserves which it has knowledge (LME, producers, consumers and dealers) is only 5.4 weeks of current consumption. "This is very close to the level considered critical for five weeks," said Ingrid Sternby. The availability of zinc for sale quickly reduced over the last six months in a context marked by severe periodic shortages of concentrate of this metal and repeat incidents in refining units.

At the same time, imports from China continue to exceed its exports. In January, the country has delivered abroad 10,800 tons of zinc, withdrawal of 39 over the same period of 2005. For their part, imports have floundered by 42 to 16.500 tonnes, however still much higher than the export sales. As to concentrate, China has acquired international markets 53.600 tonnes, down content of 4.7.

For the body of GFMS London study, primary zinc in the first quarter 2006 net deficit will be evident to 85,000 tonnes in total against 56.000 tonnes a year earlier. The second quarter of this year should result in a net default of the same order as the first three months of 2006. The situation will start to relax partially only in the third quarter, with a deficit of 30,000 tons ( 49,000 tonnes between July and September 2005). But not enough to eliminate any defects in the offer.

"Despite an increase of 3.4 of the mining production, to 9,995 million tonnes, the underdevelopment of the capabilities identified in recent years manifested by the inability to provide enough crude metal to allow a significant increase in the production of refined zinc", summarizes the GFMS analysts. Consequence: in 2005, refined metal flow was increased 1, 10.3 million tonnes.