In fact most of the indicators are more in the red

Have industrialists turned their backs to the crisis Can think and that is the message that applied to broadcast this morning the Group of the industrial federations (GFI). "There was a rebound accelerated industrial activity end 2010 - early 2011 at the global level", said at a Conference Denis Ferrand, Director General of the Institute Coe-Rexecode, who conducted a study on the 2010 review and Outlook 2011 industry for the GFI. And according to its President Pierre Gattaz "after a year of recovery of activity and exports, 2011 should confirm the contribution of industry to the growth and employment in our country". Of course everything is not perfect and the study, presented this morning does not fail to point out that the financial situation of the French industrial companies remained fragile and that they remain vulnerable to the continued increase in raw materials.

This breath of optimism seems to be confirmed by the recent surveys that have been published they also this morning by the Insee. In March indeed, the synthetic indicator of the business climate that calculates monthly Insee increased by three points and thus reached its highest level since the end of the year 2007. This indicator by the crisis plunged has therefore been cleared. In fact, most of the indicators are more in the red. Not only the business leaders surveyed believe that their past activity remained steady, but is the situation they describe leaves hope for an acceleration of activity in the coming months, though obviously if the situation in the Middle East or the Japan break the recovery. A risk particularly present in the car where there is already some effects of the earthquake of 11 March last to the Japan. Thus, the absence of electronic components from the empire of the rising sun, the PSA de Poissy factory should halve its production and has decided three days of technical unemployment.

So, overall the picture this morning by the Insee is rather encouraging. A hear entrepreneurs surveyed the stocks of finished products are always considered low while at the same time order books, global as foreign, replenishing. Logic would therefore that to meet this demand industry unto a little more turn their factories.

All sectors are well oriented with the exception of the agri-food where the activity has slowed in recent months and could still do so according to the interviewed business leaders. But the slowdown is not very important and while stocks are considered normal, orders, including foreign books are considered above average.

The improvement of the climate is also sensitive in the other branches of the economy. In services, entrepreneurs questioned by Insee would thus tend to revise "somewhat increase their expectations of activity". It must be said that it was dynamic in the recent past and should remain "steady" in the coming months. This improvement of activity including key road transport of goods, information and communication and the real estate business. Similarly, in the wholesale trade, "activity is advancing strongly and this progression would continue at a similar pace in the coming months," said Insee. According to wholesalers, "the sales and received shipments are strong increase in the global market" while their opinion on the whole of French trade, "to improve again." Optimism that contrasts however with opinion in retail trade and car repair where business leaders are rather "in the expectactive" and forecast future activity.

Now the question if this milder horizon will result in an improvement of employment is. The publication later in the day of unemployment for the month of February will no doubt enable to give a first indication. For Pierre Gattaz "in the current circumstances, these positive Outlook should be accompanied by industrial employment stabilization." For their part, the insee surveys published this morning show that certain sectors such as building or even trade wholesale provide relief of their workforce. But nothing says that it will be sufficient to affect the General level of unemployment in France.